Fear, the Weapon of 2024

Endemic, the feeling of crisis, both globally and locally, has become the most dangerous psychological weapon currently utilized. Humanity lives under fear, terrorized by negative news and grim predictions. If you wonder when something like this has occurred before, seek the answer yourself, and you’ll find it instantly – during the Covid pandemic when the entire planet adhered to the “lockdown” order, akin to a colossal social experiment. In Ukraine, the counteroffensive turned into a costly defeat for the West, overturning the expected outcome of the NATO vs. Russia conflict.

How Zelensky Will Be “Eliminated”

Like a stalled chess game in defensive moves, the battle lines on the front barely shifted in 2023. If last year commenced with a consensus – that the invasion was already a strategic defeat for Vladimir Putin and that Russia didn’t even have the weaponry to defend its capital, Moscow – December brought a change in Atlantic rhetoric – the Kremlin needs to be brought to the negotiation table, and the presence of Kyiv there is not necessarily required.

That state of exaggerated triumphalism has passed.

NATO strategists went all-in on a single thrust in southeastern Ukraine, hoping that Russian defensive lines would be breached, allowing the takeover of the Crimean peninsula and the entire Black Sea coastline. Through Crimea’s loss, a humiliated Putin would have been forced to negotiate peace on terms dictated by the US.

This gamble failed.

Along the northern border and behind the current lines in the country’s east, Ukrainian soldiers hurriedly dig trenches, hoping to resist the Russian advance. It’s all about survival now, and for that, Volodymyr Zelensky announces an additional mobilization of the population.

Zelensky’s fall is certain; it’s only a matter of how he’ll be removed from the scene. Without a doubt, General Zalujnyi will reach Kyiv, the people’s favorite and the character who best understood the reality on the front lines.

The Gaza Strip and Hidden Implications

As fierce battles rage in Kyiv (especially for maintaining political and military power), Uncle Sam shows that he has lost interest in Ukraine. Once again, attention is diverted to the Middle East.

Diplomatically and especially militarily, Israel depends on the United States, but this relationship does not necessarily translate into following Washington’s instructions. On the contrary, it seems! When American emissaries ask Benjamin Netanyahu not to escalate the Gaza Strip conflict, the latter immediately promises to intensify it.

Israel consumes the provisions donated by the USA at an alarming rate. Until the US can ramp up ammunition production and replenish its arsenal (which could take years), each rocket fired into the Gaza Strip weakens America’s deterrence.

The US military resources available for partners like Ukraine and Israel become increasingly unequal compared to the global commitments undertaken by the White House.

And this offers rivals a rare and unexpected window to directly challenge US authority.

From this standpoint, no scenario is to be dismissed. Some strategists fear that as armament production dwindles, and diplomatic isolation and internal outrage increase, the United States will be forced to seek a rapid resolution to the Middle East conflict. The logic of events (perhaps) leads to escalation. The risk of spreading to Lebanon is increasingly significant, and in addition to that, the blockade of maritime transport through the Red Sea, imposed by Yemen’s threats, has shown that the West must pay dearly for supporting Israel, while regional powers are increasingly confident in directly challenging the United States.

Having triumphantly survived a years-long war with Saudi Arabia, a conflict in which Riyadh deployed planes and missiles supplied by the USA, the risk of a short-lived punitive bombing campaign by the United States seems manageable for the Houthi Movement (Ansar Allah). Knowing that America has no appetite for a broader conflict, Sanaa has gained courage and is directly attacking American naval escorts in the Red Sea.

So geopolitically toxic is Israel’s campaign in the Gaza Strip that even America’s closest NATO allies prefer to keep their distance from the “security efforts” in the Red Sea. Simultaneously, the US Navy struggles to mobilize the resources necessary to keep trade routes open, the basic function of any global empire.

Simultaneously, the prospect of an attack on Iran (an overly ambitious objective, even for Washington) is unlikely, only fueling Tehran’s appetite to provoke Israel.

We see an overstretched America, depleting its naval strength by excessive deployments in the Red Sea. Suddenly, we are shown America’s dependence on weaker European allies, insufficiently equipped to wage a large-scale battle.

What is happening now in the Red Sea should be seen as an image of America’s naval performance. And the projection for a future conflict in the Pacific only encourages China.