What was and what wasn’t

As every year, at the beginning of the year, we made some predictions. And as we reach the end of the year, it’s time to analyze what we predicted and what has come to pass.

Let’s begin:

Geopolitically speaking, the war in Ukraine will continue. The Russians have every interest in draining the “Collective West” both financially and, more importantly, militarily. Our experience has shown that the Russian war machine is functioning better and better, while things are starting to get complicated in the adversaries’ yard. – Correct Russia will continue to be strongly supported by the “Non-Collective West”. This will help it maintain its economy in a surprising manner compared to the “predicted” disasters by the US and their allies. – Perfectly true, precisely as it has happened. Russia’s economic outcomes are surprising to those who “predicted” an economic disaster. As I mentioned, Western sanctions are like treating a wooden leg. As an effect of the war, energy prices will rise much higher than current levels, with imbalances becoming the market norm.

Russia will finalize agreements with China to expand the Siberian gas pipeline and will accelerate the development of other market outlets. TAPI becomes a crucial pipeline for the Russians; they have agreements and participation from all countries involved, so we should see the start of its construction. The main beneficiaries—India and Pakistan—depend on the pipeline to resolve their current and future energy problems. – Partially fulfilled. Energy prices have not risen but have stagnated, with a marginal increase. The Siberian pipeline is in advanced negotiations. TAPI has begun construction. In June, Pakistan signed a convention with Turkmenistan for the pipeline’s construction. In the Afghan part, efficient methods of protecting the construction are still being sought.

European economies will continue their decline, while centrifugal movements will intensify. We will witness more examples of civic disobedience. Germany and France will be leaders in street demonstrations but without great chances of toppling the political establishment. – Partially fulfilled. In terms of economic decline, civic disobedience, and demonstrations, the prediction holds. As for the intensification of centrifugal tendencies, they haven’t manifested as prominently as anticipated. Moreover, in Poland, Tusk’s terrorists have won, realigning the country with European degeneration. Tensions between China and Taiwan will escalate. Most likely, China will limit itself to intimidation operations, as it doesn’t have the courage to risk a direct confrontation with the US like Russia did. – Correct, that’s exactly how it has happened and is still ongoing.

Monetarily speaking, de-dollarization will continue at an accelerated pace. Russia is the world’s first economy to completely de-dollarize. Instead of dollars, Russia has reserved its funds in yuan. It has also rapidly implemented bilateral agreements with Turkey, Iran, and a host of other partner countries in Africa (which it supports and where it has numerous politico-economic opportunities). Russia’s largest partnership is just beginning, specifically with India. A similar contract will likely be signed with Pakistan. These bilateral contracts solve not only the problem of exports but, especially, that of imports. – Correct, the de-dollarization movement continued, and the US’s desperation is evident in its foreign actions. One of the most visible instances was the imposition of Milea in Argentina. It’s worth watching how long the lackey will last there. This year, we will see a continued rise in interest rates.

Most likely, the Federal Reserve, due to the ineptitude of the US government, will signal a reduction in interest rates. This means that this year, we will see a short peak in interest rates. – Correct, the movement was perfectly anticipated. I hope you remember that Powell recently announced a forthcoming interest rate reduction. China will continue to grow rapidly after the disaster known as “COVID Zero”. It’s possible it will exceed 6%. However, challenges remain due to internal imbalances. – Correct, but here I was off by nearly 1%. From the data I have, China’s growth is projected to be 5.3%, above the estimated 5% by authorities but below my 6% prediction. Nevertheless, China’s performances are remarkable as it develops in a hostile environment. Furthermore, China is becoming less dependent on the US.

As it diversifies its partners, it ensures to isolate itself from the US. India will be the champion of economic growth. It’s most likely heading towards an exceptional economic year. – Correct prediction: India is expected to grow by 7% this year, being the world champion. Unfortunately for Indians, economic growth is eaten up by the evolution of inflation, so the average Indian won’t feel much of the current expansion. Russia will maintain its status quo; England will face a serious contraction of its GDP, along with European countries, and the US will face terrible budgetary challenges. Republicans will attempt to reduce the budget deficit by putting pressure on the military and US operations in Ukraine. – Correct. The only exception is England, which is still doctoring its data to “look good”. Even so, the economy is technically in recession. Most probably, the disaster will be seen in the coming year.

Most likely, the biggest recession in history will begin. – Incorrect because, although we see signs everywhere, the disaster has not yet begun. Stock markets will experience serious corrections because after the haze of “growth at any cost,” a return to the correct valuation of listed companies will occur. And the overwhelming majority are significantly overvalued. – Incorrect. Although inexplicably, the increases continued. The Dow has an increase of over 12%, which is indeed madness. But you know how it is: to fall by 90%, you have to have something.

The tech sector will experience a steep decline. Massive layoffs will continue, and tech company quotations will collapse. – Incorrect. Although there were massive layoffs, tech companies grew this year. Cryptocurrencies will continue their devaluation trend. Practically, only Bitcoin and Ethereum will have the foundations for positive developments. – Correct, except for BTC and ETH, the rest lost their momentum.

Despite restrictions, TikTok has grown in the US, posing serious issues regarding China’s control over its algorithm. In fact, the big problem for Americans is that TikTok has surpassed American social networks in usage. It is very possible that we’ll see a strong action, like the “limitation” of Huawei, to allow Western-controlled companies like Apple and Samsung to dominate. – Correct.

Banning TikTok from government devices couldn’t stop its positive evolution. It’s extremely likely we’ll witness the beginning of Google’s decline. Internet search will evolve, most likely benefiting Microsoft from the new wave. The introduction of ChatGPT technology for search will represent a massive transition to a higher level, where concepts are sought rather than links. – Correct.

Bing did quite well this year, and Google’s slump is evident. One indicator is Google’s desperation to sign with Apple to have its search engine as the default on Apple devices. The internet search business is beginning to diversify. For instance, in around 80% of searches, I use Brave. Therefore, I believe the current erosion of Google will continue. AI is the new IT. Those who want to benefit from the future mega-wave should specialize in AI. In fact, what we’ll see this year will be a tremendous expansion of AI in all fields of activity. – Correct.

I’ll detail the topic in a future article. Most likely, Russia and China will manage to overcome the restrictions imposed by the US on the high-tech market this year. Russia will present the beta version of its lithography machine, made 100% with Russian technology, while China will continue to improve its research and production capacities for integrated circuits. There will be an explosion of independent processors intended to meet the increasing demand for processing for implementing various AI models. – Correct

The war economy will be visible everywhere. This implies a decrease in globalization and investments for relocalizing production. – Correct, with an exception: repatriation is done where possible, meaning where there is sufficiently cheap energy to make the environment breathable.

As we can see, Germany is outsourcing its industry. The trend of diminishing the influence of globalist centers like Davos or Soros-affiliated organizations will intensify. – Correct

In conclusion, there were 20 predictions we published. Of these, 3 did not come to pass, and three were partially true. The rest were accurate. So, in percentage terms: 15% of predictions did not come true 15% of them were partially true 70% came true I believe it’s an honorable score. I thank all those who, day by day, “demonstrate” how cabbage I am, how parallel I walk with reality, and so on. They might be right in their little world.